8 Comments

Good work once again!

Is there potential to increase average transaction values and basket sizes in the future? If yes, how so?

In quick service, its important the business can bump up order sizes like Chipotle did while increasing average store revenues for the share price to truly compound.

Using this context, do you reckon Luckin can do the same?

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I sort of agree with your perspective but no Luckin will never be a very high individual order value business because they never seek to be that. Their target audience as I specified in the post is mostly blue and white collar workers as well as university students. Their store sizes are as small as mom and pop juice stores and their whole business model is optimised for delivery with some of their outlets not even having seating. What this seeks to achieve is high volume. The cost of opening a Luckin outlet is 1/10th of the price of opening a McDonald’s or Chipotle and they’ll keep it that way for the foreseeable future. Unlike the sort of coffee chains we see in the West which have chic interiors and fancy menu names almost akin to a glorified co working space, Luckin is precisely the opposite of that.

I’m expecting the average order value to remain more or less the same and the only catalysts i can see for increasing that is more of their innovative collaborations like they had with Kweichow Moutai for example. What I am expecting this business to do is scale in rural China and lower tier cities along with SE Asia where consumers will resonate with the business model more so than they’ve even done with Tier 1 and Tier 2 Chinese cities but this is not to say that they’ll do badly in these markets it’s just that they won’t drive exponential growth

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Love the straightforward style and enthusiastic exposition.

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Cotti Coffee be like Luckin's crazy ex-girlfriend ;)

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Hahahaha I hope they go bankrupt they are so shady

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The real question is was the original deception caused solely by the original "bad" people, or by a bad culture and weak legal environment?

Eliminating the bad players doesn't necessarily eliminate the risk of fraud. Certainly the deception was such that the culture and legal environment need to be examined closely

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The legal environment is much the same the issue was with revenue recognition which the previous auditors E&Y didn’t bother verifying. The company’s management has now been taken over by one of the China’s largest private equity funds, Centureum Capital, which is backed by Temasek and GIC the Singaporean sovereign wealth funds and these funds are very stringent on the kind of funds they invest in because they’re run by as the name suggests sovereign nations. So I don’t think the culture is a problem as well

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Truly enlightening

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